Over the past few years, Turkey’s real estate market has gone through rapid growth, overheating, and subsequent cooling. By the end of 2025, it has entered a calmer phase: no crash, but no former hype either. For buyers and investors, this means one thing — in 2026, decisions will have to be based on calculations rather than emotions.
Below is an overview of the current state of the market and a realistic outlook for 2026.
The State of the Market by the End of 2025
Prices: Growth in Lira, Stagnation in Reality
Formally, housing prices in Turkey continue to rise when measured in Turkish lira. However, high inflation has almost entirely absorbed this growth. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), in most regions the market is either flat or showing a slight decline.
This is a key point: nominal price growth does not equal an increase in the real value of property.
Demand Exists, but It Has Changed
The total number of transactions in 2025 increased, primarily driven by domestic buyers. Mortgage-backed deals have gradually started to return to the market amid expectations of monetary policy easing.
Foreign demand, by contrast, declined compared to the peak levels of 2022–2023. This is especially noticeable in Istanbul, Antalya, and resort areas, where foreigners previously played a key role.
One Market — Different Scenarios
Today, Turkey is not a single, uniform market but a collection of regions operating under different dynamics:
- Istanbul — high liquidity and stable rental demand, but a high entry price;
- Antalya and resort areas — strong dependence on foreign buyers and migration rules;
- Ankara — more resilient domestic demand;
- Mersin — relatively affordable prices and continued interest from foreign buyers.
Factors That Will Influence the Market in 2026
Inflation and Interest Rates
The main driver of the market in 2026 will be macroeconomics. If inflation and interest rates continue to decline, mortgages will become more affordable and demand broader. However, a return to the cheap credit of previous years should not be expected: even in a positive scenario, rates will remain high by historical standards.
Currency and Real Returns
For buyers with income in euros or dollars, the decisive factor is not the price in lira but real returns:
- price dynamics in foreign currency;
- the Turkish lira exchange rate;
- net rental income after taxes and expenses.
This is where investment miscalculations most often occur.
Regulation and Administrative Rules
Residence permit requirements, citizenship-by-investment programs, property eligibility rules, and “closed areas” directly affect property liquidity. In 2026, this factor will remain critically important: even a good property can lose its appeal due to regulatory changes.
Outlook for 2026: Three Scenarios
Base Scenario
The most likely course of events:
- inflation continues to decline;
- interest rates gradually decrease;
- prices in lira rise, while real prices hover around zero;
- the market becomes more “negotiable,” with discounts, installment plans, and tailored terms.
Optimistic Scenario
Possible if inflation slows more quickly:
- active revival of mortgage lending;
- growth in real prices in liquid areas;
- increased demand for completed properties with a clear rental track record.
Negative Scenario
Triggered by macroeconomic or political shocks:
- persistently high inflation;
- increased currency volatility;
- foreign demand falls more sharply than expected;
- developers compete more aggressively on price and bonuses.
What This Means for Buyers in 2026
2026 is not about quick speculation, but about careful and well-considered choices.
For buyers, it is important to:
- calculate costs and returns in foreign currency;
- assess the liquidity of the area and the building;
- verify actual, not advertised, rental yields;
- take residence permit and citizenship requirements into account before purchasing.
At this stage, the process of selecting land for real estate development in Turkey becomes especially important — from the legal status of the land and zoning to the development prospects of the area. Mistakes here are the most costly. More about real estate site selection process in Turkey: https://iworld.com/en/blog/purchase-real-estate-turkey
Conclusion
Turkey’s real estate market enters 2026 in a more mature and calmer state. This is no longer a market of universal advice and quick decisions. It requires analysis, an understanding of macroeconomics, and a clear answer to why you need this property in the first place: for living, renting out, or capital preservation.
For those ready to calculate and compare, 2026 may offer good opportunities. For those relying solely on promises of price growth, it will most likely bring disappointment.
